You've got 6 months to live...WTH??

[Quita]

How in the heck can "they" know how long you have to live? Are they physic?

Nope its all probability - based on assumptions...

I will tell you how they figure this out, but first let me go over a few things.

You need to understand the following mathematical parameters:
Ratio - division of one # by another than may or may not be related
Proportion - # is subset of the denominator; often expressed as a percentage (clue proportion and percentage start with p)
Rate - time part of the denominator

These parameters are used to relate # of cases of disease size to population and time

You hear ppl talk of incidence and prevalence --using the terms interchangeably but they are different
Prevalence is the total cases of all diseases
Incidence is the total cases of NEW diseases

So they are not the same, but they are related- How.... P/(1-P) = IR/D

If incidence is high and prevalence is low... this means that ppl are dying from whatever ds they have very quickly or (incidence high- short duration -low prevalence)
If incidence is low and prevalence is high ...this means that ppl are living longer with whatever disease they have. (incidence low- long duration- prevalence high)

Clear?

So someone gets cancer and wants to know how long they have to live?( People ask these questions so ppl figured out a way to answer them using stats). As a scientist you know the annual prevalence and incidence rates on this particular type of cancer, but you have to figure out the DURATION.

Say they have Lung cancer
Lung cancer incidence rate (new cases) is 45.9/100,000per year
Prevalence of lung cancer is 23/100,000 per year

D= P/IR

D= 23/100,000 py / 45.9/100,000py = 0.5 years

D= 6 months (0.5 or 1/2 of a year)

So individuals with lung cancers survive 6 months from diagnosis to death......


Thanks for reading and learning with me :)

[Aaron (Al) Lewis]

My dad had lung cancer and lived 2 years after he was diagnosed. what is really odd was when they told us he had 3 months to live he died the next week. I am just wondering if stress has anything to do as an accelerant  in certain forms of cancer? They removed his left lung in late 1999. He did well, his check ups showed no cancers for months. Then on the third of July 2001, his next door neighbor, a young man who grew up next door to us, was shot and died in my father's arms.

On July 5th, we had to call an ambulance, the first of many, because he could not breath well. That same week they found out the cancer was back with a vengeance.  

[Clifford Black]

This information is something that young people need to be learning about starting in day care.......B.

[Quita]

This is true (B)

[Quita]

Omg... that's awful.

Stress can accelerate things in my opinion. There are a lot of biochemical changes that occur with stress as an initiator. It does a hell of a lot of damage to the body.

[Jah El]

This was very enlightening Queen, Thank You, I enjoyed reading.

[Quita]

No problem Jah...I appreciate you reading it.